Both the expectation for home prices and the percentage of those who think the U.S. economy is on the right path reached record highs in Fannie Mae’s April 2012 National Housing Survey.

Americans continue to expect home prices to go up, with the projection averaging 1.3 percent over the next 12 months, the highest value recorded.

At 71 percent, a high percentage of Americans still say it is a good time to buy while the percentage who said it is a good time to sell was 15 percent, a 1 point increase from March.

“Overall, consumer views of housing market conditions have become more supportive of home purchases, and sustained healthy hiring is required to help realize these improved expectations,” said Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae chief economist.

In Freddie Mac’s results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey®, the average fixed mortgage rates found new all-time record lows, continuing to help keep homebuyer affordability high. The 30-year fixed averaged 3.84 percent, down from its previous all-time record low of 3.87 percent last registered on February 9, 2012. The 15-year fixed averaged 3.07 percent, also dropping below its previous all-time record low of 3.11 percent set April 12 of this year. The 1-year ARM also averaged a new all-time record low in the PMMS at 2.70 percent.

• 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 3.84 percent with an average 0.8 point for the week ending May 3, 2012, down from last week when it averaged 3.88 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 4.71 percent.
• 15-year FRM this week averaged 3.07 percent with an average 0.7 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.12 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 3.89 percent.
• 5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 2.85 percent this week, with an average 0.7 point, unchanged from last week when it averaged 2.85 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 3.47 percent.
• 1-year Treasury-indexed ARM averaged 2.70 percent this week with an average 0.6 point, down from last week when it averaged 2.74 percent. At this time last year, the 1-year ARM averaged 3.14 percent.

According to Frank Nothaft, vice president and chief economist, Freddie Mac:

“Signs of slowing economic growth and inflation remaining subdued allowed yields on Treasury bonds to ease somewhat and brought most mortgage rates to new all-time record lows this week. Real Gross Domestic Product rose at an annualized rate of 2.2 percent in the first quarter of this year, down from the previous quarter of 3.0 percent and below the market consensus forecast of 2.5 percent. In addition, the 12-month growth in the core price index of personal consumption expenditures was 2.0 percent in March which matches the Federal Reserve’s implied inflation target.”

EUGENE, ORE. – IDX, Inc. is pleased to announce the growing network of real estate agents and brokers utilizing the incredible IDX Broker software on their professional websites has grown once again, with the addition of a customizable IDX solution to the website of Peter Lupus. As a Gilbert, Arizona real estate broker with Peter Lupus Real Estate Groupe. Lupus has the unique ability to give his clients a comprehensive online property search directly on his website. Arizona Regional MLS (ARMLS) instantly displays thousands of detailed home listings on the results page of his website, giving home seekers on the website of Lupus a complete and thorough online search experience. Never before has such a dynamic tool been so easily accessible to Arizona potential buyers.

Lupus has not only brought thousands of homes to the fingertips of his clients, thanks to his IDX enabled website, he has also dramatically simplified the online property search. The five unique searches home seekers can experience, including the powerful advanced search, work to simultaneously narrow and focus the ARMLS listings. By creating custom search parameters, potential buyers can quickly be matched with the perfect home, on the website Lupus hosts. Style, school district, water features, and even acreage options can all be specified to guide home seekers through the tools and properties Lupus features online.

An administrative login page further simplifies the online real estate world, this time for Lupus. He can maintain his website with the tools his IDX solution has made available to him, such as the lead generation system and the ability to edit CSS and global wrapper to create a unique design for his website, in addition to the tools he can utilize in an effort to virtually circulate property listings throughout the online real estate market. Lupus, and his real estate website, has forever changed, thanks to IDX Broker software.

About Peter Lupus

Peter Lupus is the owner and principal broker of Peter Lupus Real Estate Group of Scottsdale, Arizona.
About IDX, Inc.

Based in Eugene, Oregon, IDX Inc. is nationally known as a leading provider of real estate search applications. IDX, Inc. actively manages over $1 trillion worth of active listings data from over 500 individual Multiple Listings Services (MLS). IDX, Inc. provides integrated IDX software, customizable listing search utilities and lead management tools for real estate based websites (IDX Broker). In addition to the primary web-based software, IDX also provides an integrated WordPress widget for use in WordPress based blogs and websites (IDX Broker WordPress Plugin ) as well as a dedicated mobile application available for the iPhone and iPad (myAgent IDX ). The entire suite of real estate software available from IDX is easy to manage and maintain and helps real estate professionals display real estate data from their multiple listing service (MLS) regardless of their technical ability. For more information on all the services provided by IDX, Inc., please visit www.idxbroker.com .

AZ Housing on the Rise Valley wide

The crash of the housing market was notoriously fast and furious in Metro Phoenix. The ‘first-in / first out’ surge of activity we see today marks a lower-end market on fire—the result of the price clock dialed back a decade; the inventory of homes being depleted faster than new listings can replace them; and investors and first-time buyers fiercely competing for what inventory remains.

However, this 30 thousand foot level view misses a landscape of diverse market dynamics that follow from community and price range factors.

For example, while Metro Phoenix first quarter year-over-year sales are down, sales are up in the NE Valley’s resort corridor of Arcadia, Paradise Valley, Scottsdale, Carefree and Fountain Hills.

More specifically, year-over-year sales are down 8% Valley-wide, though not for lack of demand, but lack of inventory–down 40% from a year ago! 58% of current sales are in the distressed category–down 20% from a year ago. There’s only a 2.6-month supply of homes for sale and home prices average $183,000–up 15.5% from last year.

In the chart below we see both 2012 appreciation compared with 2011 and an overlay of the current ratio of distress to normal sales.

By contrast, when you narrow the focus to Scottsdale, year-over-year sales are up 25%. Home prices average $480,500, and there is a 4.4-month supply. That’s almost a 40% decrease in the month supply, with fewer than 30% distressed sales. And as you can see below, prices are up 6.4%.

Looking more broadly to the NE luxury resort corridor, the trend is clear:

We are seeing a trickle-up recovery moving to the mid/upper-range homes in the NE Valley, extending up to 2.5 million.

Naturally, as you climb the price-range ladder, the month supply goes up as well. However, even in Paradise Valley, where the average price is 1.4 million, the month supply is 10 months—down 40% from a year ago.

Sellers: Best opportunity in 5 years.

Buyers: Better hurry!

It goes without saying that the 3% per month appreciation is a Valley wide projection. However, the dynamics of low supply and sustained demand runs across most all markets and price points, suggesting the ‘trickle up’ I’ve blogged about. All of this continues to be a flashing green light to buyers (if you can find them a house)!

Short Sales Start to Outpace Foreclosures

Daily Real Estate News | Thursday, April 19, 2012

Beginning June 15, real estate agents working with distressed homeowners whose loans are backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac should expect to receive a decision on a short sale offer within 30-60 days.

The GSEs issued new guidelines Tuesday that fall under the Servicing Alignment Initiative rolled out last fall and aim to bring greater transparency to the short sale process and expedite decisions related to these pre-foreclosure sales.

Not only is a short sale an effective foreclosure alternative when home retention is no longer an option, but it keeps homes occupied and helps to maintain stable communities, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA).

Addressing real estate practitioners’ No. 1 complaint about short sales, FHFA directed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to establish a new uniform set of minimum response times that servicers must follow in order to facilitate more efficient short sale transactions.

The GSEs’ new short sale timelines require servicers to make a decision within 30 days of receiving either an offer on a property under the companies’ traditional short sale programs or a completed Borrower Response Package (BRP) requesting short sale consideration, whether it’s through the federal government’s Home Affordable Foreclosure Alternative (HAFA) program or a GSE program.

Under $25,000    - 21 days – was 58
$25,000 to $50,000 – 28 days – was 112
$50,000 to $75,000 – 34 days – was 148
$75,000 to $100,000 – 44 days – was 132
$100,000 to $125,000 – 52 days – was 111
$125,000 to $150,000 – 60 days – was 108
$150,000 to $175,000 – 69 days versus 112
$175,000 to $200,000 – 79 days versus 133
$200,000 to $225,000 – 84 days versus 124
$225,000 to $250,000 – 93 days versus 134
$250,000 to $275,000 – 106 days versus 143
$275,000 to $300,000 – 107 days versus 159
$300,000 to $350,000 – 130 days versus 159
$350,000 to $400,000 – 143 days versus 173
$400,000 to $500,000 – 170 days versus 192
$500,000 to $600,000 – 190 days versus 228
$600,000 to $800,000 – 245 days versus 328
$800,000 to $1,000,000 – 340 days versus 406
$1,000,000 to $1,500,000 – 379 days versus 446
$1,500,000 to $2,000,000 – 496 days versus 705
$2,000,000 to $3,000,000 – 824 days versus 837
$3,000,000 and above – 1,291 days versus 978
Note that these numbers for inventory INCLUDE AWC status listings. Tomorrow we will look at the inventory EXCLUDING AWC.

April 1 – I have heard some people saying that we have less supply now than in 2005, when you allow for AWC listings. This is not true if we are talking about the extreme lows in supply that occurred at the end of March and beginning of April 2005, exactly seven years ago. On April 1, 2005 we had (across all areas & types) 8,342 active listings including 1,470 in AWC status, leaving us with 6,872 active listings without a contract.. On April 1, 2012 we have 21,841 active listings of which 7,666 are AWC and 14,175 are active without a contract. So 2005 was far lower and the shortage was across the board at almost all price ranges. However in 2005, supply rose rapidly from April 1 onward. Currently we are at the same level in active listings without contract as in the second week of September 2005. However our supply shortage is heavily skewed towards the lower price ranges.

http://housingwire.com/article/ag-settlement-starts-clock-short-sales

As part of a settlement with state attorneys general, the five largest mortgage servicers are adopting new requirements for short sales, which is expected to speed-up what has been known as a lengthy process.

Here are some of the new requirements for servicers under the settlement:

• Servicers must provide borrowers with a decision within 30 days after receiving a short sale package request.
• Servicers will be required to notify a borrower, also within 30 days, if any necessary documents are missing to process the short sale request.
• Servicers must notify a borrower immediately if a deficiency payment is needed to approve the short sale. They also must provide an estimated amount for the deficiency payment needed for the short sale.
• Servicers are also required to form an internal group to review all short sale requests.
• Banks will be considered in violation of the settlement requirements if they take longer than 30 days on more than 10 percent of the short sale requests. Violations can carry fines of up to $1 million and $5 million for repeat offenses.

“If a real estate broker can get a checklist from the bank detailing what documentation is needed, everything can be provided up front, and the bank will be required to give a thumbs-up or a thumbs-down within 30 days,” short sale specialist Chris Hanson with the Hanson Law Firm told HousingWire. “That’s not a bad deal.”

Source: “AG Settlement Starts the Clock on Short Sales,” HousingWire (March 14, 2012)

If you have lived in the Valley of the sun for longer than 7 years, you will remember the mad rush in the real estate market of the 2005 real estate market.  Most homes were receiving multiple first day offers and values were sky rocketing.  Today, in comparison the first 2.5 months of 2005 to the first 2.5 months of 2012 in our Maricopa County real estate. The similarities in the chart below as something to pay attention to.

In addition to the above numbers taken from ARMLS®, it should be noted that the average DOM (days on market) for 2005 was 84 days while 2012 is only 81 days.  

What does this mean to you, the Maricopa County homeowner?  It means that now may be a great time to sell your home.  The inventory is very low offering limited competition for your home sale.  Prices are rising slightly, not at the crazy rates of 2005 but at a sustainable 3.8% on average with some areas seeing even higher increases.

If you’re looking to buy a home in Maricopa County, you will need to be prepared to make an offer the first day a home comes on the market.  Your offer must have full loan approval or proof of funds (cash) for it to be considered over other multiple offers which may come in and you may need to be prepared to pay more than the list price.  

Will prices continue to increase?  I don’t think anyone truly knows the answer.  I do know that our AZ Maricopa County real estate market is very low on inventory, the demand is very high, prices are seeing some improvement and the interest rates are still at historic lows.

If you’re interested in selling your home in the Phoenix Metro area call me for your free market analysis.