Phoenix housing market on the rise

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The media seems to be full of positive outlooks for the national housing market. Fannie Mae states that the housing market has turned the corner and a sustained recovery is under way. The CEO of JPMorgan Chase says that every single thing about housing is flashing green. As far as Greater Phoenix is concerned, our market has been flashing green for some 14 months.

We have reached a point where the market is less frenetic but the outlook is still positive. At some point, higher prices tend to put a brake on buyer’s enthusiasm. That is what they are supposed to do. If higher prices increase buyer enthusiasm then you have irrational exuberance taking over like it did from April 2003 through October 2005. That is your first clue that the market is entering a bubble phase. That is not happening now. Buyers are behaving rationally.

Mortgage Forgiveness Act in Danger of Expiring

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The Mortgage Forgiveness Debt Relief Act of 2007 is set to expire at the end of the year. The act allows taxpayers to be excluded from paying taxes on forgiven debt in certain situations. As their website explains:

“The Mortgage Debt Relief Act of 2007 generally allows taxpayers to exclude income from the discharge of debt on their principal residence. Debt reduced through mortgage restructuring, as well as mortgage debt forgiven in connection with a foreclosure, qualifies for the relief.”

The act also applies to debt forgiven in a short sale. The big question is whether or not Congress will extend it past the December 31st deadline. Forty-one state attorneys general signed a letter urging Congressional leaders to extend the act. In the letter, it is explained:

“Each of our offices receives calls every day from homeowners trying to save their homes or struggling to recover from losing their homes…Congress must act. We urge you to extend the existing exclusion of forgiven or cancelled mortgage debt from taxable income under federal law before it expires at the end of this calendar year.”

The push is on to get an extension. Here are the current bills in Congress:

U.S. House of Representatives: Resolution 4336 and Resolution 4202

Senate: Senate Bill 2250

Whether Congress will act in time to extend the act before its expiration is anyone’s guess.

 

To view the original article, click here: http://www.kcmblog.com/2012/12/04/will-the-mortgage-forgiveness-act-be-extended/

Scottsdale and Paradise Valley housing market updates

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Scottsdale, AZ 85251. 85255, 85259 and Paradise Valley, AZ 85253 housing market updates.

 

Scottsdale median sales prices

Scottsdale median sales prices

 

Paradise Valley median sales prices

Luxury sales on the rise after sluggish summer…

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November 13 - The 90-day average rate for Notices of Trustee Sale in Maricopa County is now 90 per day. This is the lowest rate since September 2007. We would regard a rate of 60-70 per day as within the normal range. The peak was 325 in April 2009.

November 12 - Normal sales within Greater Phoenix are currently selling for about 97% of list price. [MikeB Comment: This is what I call the Trading Range - proof of the 'efficiency' of the market] This is somewhat above the average of 96.21%, but well below the peak of 99.55% reached at the height of the bubble on June 5, 2005. This measure is a good gauge of how hot the market is at any point in time. The lowest level reached in the last 12 years was 90.80% and this level occurred on February 5, 2009 when it was extremely hard for normal listings to compete with the flood of lender owned properties.

November 11 - We mentioned yesterday that house prices (in terms of average $/SF for monthly sales) were currently increasing by about 2% per month. In fact the rate as of November 11, 2012 is 2.3%. This is actually slightly lower than the rate measured last year on November 11, 2011, when it was 2.7%, having risen from $80.10 to $82.25 between October 11 and November 11, 2011. The annual appreciation rate is currently 27.5% and it has fallen in the 26.0% to 28.7% since the end of September. One year ago the annual appreciation rate was a negative 2.0%.

November 10 - The increased contribution from the luxury market that we mentioned yesterday is having the effect of pushing the average price per sq. ft. higher. This is the reverse of what happened during the summer when its weakness dragged the averages lower. The average price per sq. ft. for monthly sales is today at $105.13 (the overall average for all types & areas) – the first time we have exceeded $105 since November 17, 2008. Together with the current imbalance between supply and demand, the upward pressure is sufficient to raise average sales $/SF by 2% per month.

November 9 - The luxury market is picking up nicely after a slow summer. There were 71 closed ARMLS sales during October for Greater Phoenix homes listed over $1,000,000. This compares well with only 49 for October 2011, 49 for October 2010, 65 for October 2009 and 55 for October 2008. Listings under contract (pending and AWC) are also on the rise for homes priced over $1,000,000, This morning we had 148, far more than the 105 we saw on November 9, 2011. Of these 148, 117 were normal listings, whereas we had only 69 one year ago.

Cromford Daily Observations

The months of home supply for all areas & types on ARMLS is back up to 3.5

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The months of supply for all areas & types on ARMLS is back up to 3.5, within what we would call the normal range of 3.5 to 5.5 and well above the level of 2.3 that we experienced last May. This reversion towards a normal market is caused by a combination of greater supply and less demand, but mostly the former. The number of active listings without a contract is up from 12,921 to 17,156 since May 3, a rise of 33% in just under 6 months. The monthly sales rate has fallen from 8,652 to 6,424 over the same period, but this is in line with normal seasonal patterns. This eases the upward pressure on prices, but prices continue to move north nevertheless. Today’s monthly average sales price per sq. ft. is $104.23 which is the highest reading since December 3, 2008. ~ Cromford Daily Observation

Q&A: Want to Avoid Credit Card Debt This Holiday Season?

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QUESTION: How can I avoid accumulating credit card debt over the holidays?

ANSWER: Too many people find themselves with a large amount of credit card debt after the holidays, thinking they’ll pay the balance with their tax refund. When you think about it, getting a refund check means that you let the IRS use your money throughout the year without paying you any interest. One option is to adjust your withholding so you have more money in each paycheck instead of “loaning” the money to the IRS and having to wait for a refund. But don’t go overboard. You should only lessen the periodic tax withholding to match the expected refund so you won’t end up owing money unexpectedly. You can also adjust your withholding for a limited time, so you can increase your paycheck leading up to the holidays and then readjust your withholding in January. The IRS offers a Withholding Calculator, which lets you see how a change in withholding will affect your paycheck. It’s also a good idea to check with your tax professional before making any changes.

National Cyber Security Awareness Month

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People do just about everything on their computers – from balancing their family budgets and managing business expenses to storing personal information of friends and family members, such as names, addresses, dates of birth, and maybe even passwords that are hard to remember.

Unfortunately, all of that information is at risk…every day. That’s because there are more and more viruses and malicious software programs being developed and circulated. There’s no way to 100% guarantee that your data and sensitive information is secure, but there are some simple steps you can take to help prevent a cyber attack from happening to you.

1. Lock your computer. Most people wouldn’t leave home with their doors unlocked, but they walk away from an unlocked computer all the time. To help make sure that someone else can’t tap into your computer when you step out of your office, make sure you set up a password and lock it before you walk away.

2. Stay up to date. When software developers become aware of possible security breaches, they typically act quickly to fix the problem and make a new release available to help keep their customers safe. So, make sure you keep your browser up to date with all patches and new releases.

3. Strengthen your passwords. It can be tempting to choose simple passwords or use the same password for all of your accounts. But that can pose a big risk. To make sure your info is protected, create strong passwords that are tough to break.

4. Use a firewall. A firewall is exactly what it sounds like – a wall or barrier that controls access to your computer…and your data! Firewalls may be built into some of your software or your operating system. So most people don’t even need to take extra steps to purchase or install a firewall…they just need to turn them on. Take a moment and make sure you have a firewall not only installed but also activated.

5. Use an anti-virus program. Just because you have a firewall, doesn’t mean you’re safe from viruses that can damage your computer or steal data. In addition to being cautious about what you download from emails or websites, make sure you have an anti-virus program and that it’s up to date.

6. Talk to kids. Before children are allowed to go online, make sure they understand about the risks of malicious programs and online communication. The website StaySafeOnline.org uses this analogy: “We don’t teach children to drive by giving them the keys to the car and expecting them to be ‘self-taught.’ Similarly, we shouldn’t let them sit down at the computer and surf away without training and supervision.” So make sure that children are educated and prepared – and that they have a co-pilot when they take a spin on the family computer.

To learn more about cyber safety and simple tips you can do, visit http://www.staysafeonline.org.

What to Watch: New Home Sales

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Last month, we learned that the Existing Home Sales Report is an important report to watch when it comes to analyzing the health of the housing market. After all, existing (or pre-owned) houses account for roughly 84% of all houses sold.

But the New Home Sales Report is equally important to watch. Why? The level of new home sales indicates housing market trends, and economic momentum signaling consumer purchases of furniture and appliances. Simply, the volume of sales indicates housing demand. So this month, we focus on the New Home Sales report and the multiple indicators that it provides.

What’s in the report? The New Home Sales report shows the number of newly constructed homes with a committed sale during the month. The data is timely and is used in conjunction with the existing home sales release from the National Association of Realtors.

What happened last month? There was a mix of good and bad news in the report released in September, which showed August’s figures. While New Home Sales rose by 372,000 in August, this was below the 380,000 expected. However, the median price for New Home sales rose 11.2% in August to $256,000–the highest since March of 2007. This could be a sign that prices in some areas have hit bottom and are coming back up.

Where does the data come from? The data is compiled through a nationwide survey of 10,000 builders/owners of 15,000 building projects and through sampling of permit-issuing offices, as well as land not covered by building permits.

When is the next release? The next New Home Sales report is scheduled for release on October 24, 2012 at 10:00 a.m. ET.

If you have any questions about the housing market in our area or other economic reports, please call or email me. I’m always happy to explain what’s going on and how it impacts the home loan rate you can get based on your unique situation.

Bad News Bears Down on Economy

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Last month, we saw several major economic reports deliver disappointing news, one of the biggest being the final reading of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the second quarter, which was reported at an anemic 1.3%. This was after a sizable downward revision to previous estimates–and this is significant because GDP is the broadest measure of economic activity.

In addition, Durable Goods Orders (i.e. orders for products like furniture and computers that are designed to last for an extended period of time) for August came in shockingly low. Plus the manufacturing sector is struggling as well, with the September New York State Manufacturing Index coming in at its lowest level since April 2009 and the September Philly Fed Index showing a contraction for a fifth straight month in a row. However, there was some positive news on the housing front, as Existing Home Sales for August rose to a two-year high and the median price for New Home sales rose to $256,000, the highest since March of 2007.

Disappointing reports like those mentioned above are a big reason why the Fed announced its latest round of Bond buying (known as Quantitative Easing or QE3) on September 13. If you’ve been wondering what Quantitative Easing actually is, it’s the concept of the Fed becoming a buyer of Treasuries and Bonds to try and stimulate the economy.

It’s important to keep in mind that one of the goals and consequences of QE3 could be inflation. And inflation is the arch enemy of Bonds and home loan rates, as it reduces the value of fixed investments like Bonds (including Mortgage Bonds, which home loan rates are tied to). This will be an important development to watch for in the coming weeks and months.

The bottom line is that home loan rates continue to remain near historic lows, meaning now continues to be a great time to purchase or refinance a home. Let me know if I can answer any questions at all for you or someone you know.

Low Valuation in Home Appraisals Causing Steady Level of Contract Glitches

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Low Valuation in Home Appraisals Causing Steady Level of Contract Glitches
WASHINGTON (October 10, 2012) – The real estate market is recovering but still faces hurdles, notably from tight mortgage credit, but problems with a sizeable share of real estate appraisals also are holding back home sales, according to survey findings by the National Association of Realtors®.
Most appraisers are competent and provide good valuations that are compliant with the Uniform Standards of Professional Appraisal Practice. However, appraisals generally lag market conditions and some changes to the appraisal process have been causing problems in recent years, including the use of out-of-area valuators without local expertise or full access to local data, inappropriate comparisons, and excessive lender demands. In addition, before the beginning of last year, some lenders’ loan processors edited valuations, cutting them by a certain percentage.
Although 65 percent of Realtors® surveyed in September report no contract problems relating to home appraisals over the past three months,* 11 percent said a contract was cancelled because an appraised value came in below the price negotiated between the buyer and seller, 9 percent reported a contract was delayed, and 15 percent said a contract was renegotiated to a lower sales price as a result of a low valuation. These findings are notable given that homes in many areas are selling for less than replacement construction costs.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said there has been a steady level of appraisal issues for quite some time. “Though the real estate recovery is taking place, the combined issues of stringent mortgage lending requirements and appraisal frictions are hampering otherwise qualified buyers from purchasing a home in a timely fashion, and in some cases are preventing them from buying at all,” he said.
Major problems reported by Realtors® include:
• Some appraisers are using foreclosures, short sales and run-down properties as comparable homes, and are not making adjustments for market conditions or the condition of the property.
• Appraised values that do not reflect market conditions such as rising prices, the presence of multi-bidding and low inventory.
• Appraised values are very inconsistent and fluctuate widely.
• Out-of-town appraisers, who are not familiar with the area or local market conditions, are being used.
• Turn-around time by both appraisers and banks is slow, which delays closings.
A large concern is that some appraisers working for an Appraisal Management Company are operating under strict and limited parameters due to bank lending criteria, which appears to be related to banking regulations or risk aversion on the part of the lender. Furthermore, unreasonable “put back” risks imposed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac could also cause banks to set unrealistic requirements for appraisers.
There is a clear difference between the value of distressed property and non-distressed homes, and some appraisers do not currently distinguish between these types of properties when making comparisons for valuation purposes. NAR data shows that the typical foreclosure is sold for an average discount of 20 percent relative to traditional homes in good condition, while the typical short sale is discounted by 15 percent.
Many of the inappropriate comparisons appear to be made by appraisers lacking local expertise, who generally live outside of the market where the appraised property is located – often without full access to local data from a multiple listing service.
NAR President Moe Veissi, broker-owner of Veissi & Associates Inc., in Miami, said some appraisal practices lack common sense. “Our long-standing policy is that all appraisals should be done by licensed or certified professionals with local expertise, which also is what Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac recommend, but clearly this isn’t practiced universally,” he said.
NAR has long advocated for an independent appraisal process and enhanced education requirements that allow appraisers to produce the most accurate reports possible. However, appraisers have faced undue pressure – whether from a lender or an AMC – to complete appraisals using distressed sales as comps, to complete an appraisal in an unacceptably short time frame, and to complete a scope of work that is not justified by the fee being offered.
These are major problems. In addition, some appraisers are required to provide as many as eight to 10 comparable sales, which almost guarantee the use of distressed properties as comps in many cases.
Previously, three comparable homes were the norm for most appraisals. In many cases there simply aren’t enough apples-to-apples comps to comply with the excessive demands by lenders, so discounted distressed homes are sometimes used in valuating traditional homes in good condition without appropriate adjustments.
“In short, there has been an inconsistent appraisal process leading to disruptive delays for home buyers and sellers,” Veissi said. “All home valuations should be made without undue pressure from any source. Even so, buyers, sellers and agents are free to ask appraisers to consider additional data and to correct errors, or discuss unique aspects of the home, the neighborhood or properties used as comps.”
The appraisal industry has made strides in adapting to market conditions, expanding education and making appropriate adjustments for distressed homes that are used as comps. It appears many of the remaining problems are tied to appraisals made through AMCs.
Fortunately, the level of distressed sales is trending down – they accounted for about one-third of all sales in 2011, but have averaged roughly a quarter of sales in recent months. By 2013 NAR expects the distressed market share to decline to about 10 to 15 percent. As distressed inventory is cleared from the market over the next two years, it should help to correct ongoing problems.
“In the meantime, buyers, sellers and real estate agents need to be aware that there are problems with some real estate appraisals, but also be aware of their rights to communicate with appraisers and lenders about errors or concerns with individual valuations,” Veissi said. “In some cases, a second appraisal may be justified.”
The National Association of Realtors®, “The Voice for Real Estate,” is America’s largest trade association, representing 1 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.
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*Data on appraisal issues are from a monthly survey for the Realtors® Confidence Index, posted at www.Realtor.org. The findings from a panel of NAR members typically are based on more than 3,000 monthly responses.
A direct link to the above article can be found here